What If the Fed Does Not Raise Rates?
I fully expect the Fed to raise rates in December, even though being Scrooge is no fun. But what are the implications for the USD if they do not? The below chart shows that the USD tends to sell off after the first rate rise, before rallying over the next twelve months.
When the ECB did not become as aggressive as expected this month the EURO rallied 3 cents on the day. That is a huge move in the currency world.
Will the sell the news become even greater? The USD has had a hard time breaking through 100 on the Dollar Index. Is that just tough resistance or a tell?