US Economy, Recessions and one of my Favourite Indicators
I believe light truck sales is one of the best economic indicators. Few people buy pick up trucks because they want one, most are bought for work and those that do usually work in blue collar jobs and if they have the funds to purchase a new truck the economy is doing well.
Other than the double dip recession of the early 1980’s, light truck sales peaks out at least 1 year before a recession. Now this indicator is not a timing model, as in when it peaks sell everything and buy canned food and ammo, but when the sales peak followed by the trend line being broken, historically it is a good idea to begin to watch the economy for other indicators.
Are truck sales peaking?