Average Hourly Earnings are still growing faster than at any time since the decline after the most recent financial crisis.
US Economic Update
A quick scan of the US economy:
Total hours worked per week are at an all time high. Lower wages and more hours is not a better world, but its not the apocalypse.
The Labour Force Participation is ticking up for the first time in about a decade. This is a positive.
While autos and light trucks together have broken the trend line, light tricks has not. Light trucks tend to decline prior to recessions.
The Yield curve is still steep at the front end and the slight kink has disappeared. This suggests bond markets expect an increase in the short run but then very gradual increases. An inverted curve may not be possible in this environment, but a flat one may be the signal.
The US economy is not overtly strong but is still moving forward. I think Brian Wesbury’s Plow Horse is a good description.