The immediate thought by many traders was to buy gold when a Trump victory became clear due to the uncertainty and potential global chaos. Gold spiked $60 overnight, however, by the next day it had given back most of its gains and by the end of Thursday gold had traded lower. I think gold is a short trade for the time being based upon the following thesis:
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
Trump plans to reduce corporate taxes to 10% on overseas profits repatriated to the US from abroad. Those funds are held in foreign currency. To repatriate this money US multinational corporations will have to buy the Dollar and sell the foreign currency the accounts are held in. Some suggest there is up to $3 trillion held abroad. This would create a lot of USD buying and send the dollar higher and gold substantially lower. Gold could drop to $1125 at which point it may become good value. Gold may rally a little more to complete the right shoulder of a Head and Shoulders topping pattern and to suck the retail investor in.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
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