Economic Discussion In the past it was common to suggest that the stock market was a leading economic indicator and would peak up to six months prior to the economy. I think that was due to a slow dissemination and collection of economic data versus the quick realisation of punters view of economic activity. I […]
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Economic Outlook
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Labour Market Recession Indicator For Canada
The top chart, found in this CIBC report on labour market myths, plots the share of Canadians who have been with their employer 5 years or greater and the bottom chart is Canadian GDP per capita from the St. Louis Fed FRED site. When the percentage of workers at the same employer starts declining and […]
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Is the Fed Trying to Fall Behind the Curve?
In the June Absolute Return Partners Letter they ask whether the FED is behind the curve and display the following charts. I suggest we take the question further, is the FED trying to fall behind the curve? Absolute Return Partners Absolute Return Partners Absolute Return Partners To quote from my recent Oil Forecast Report, which […]
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Wage Gains Attracting Labour Market Participants
Richmond Fed Richmond Fed
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S&P500 Underperforms when Employment is Below 5%
A few posts back, I wondered whether wage increases will increase the participation rate? – one better hope so if they are a stock investor. Wells Capital Management
Read moreRichmond Fed Richmond Fed Are wage increases finally attracting people back to the labour market? If these entrants are absorbed and wage increases are contained, this would be huge sign the US economy is doing better than expected
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I thought the Phillips Curve was Dead
Confluence Investment Managem I thought the Phillips Curve was Dead? I guess it is only broken.
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Median Household Income vs. Unemployment Rate
Sentier Research What happened in 2005 to cause these two data sets to become inversely related? From 2000-2005 they were correlated, but that has changed? What would the implications be if they became correlated again?
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