2018 Outlook 2017 was an excellent year for the global economy. For the first time since the Great Recession there was synchronized global growth. This year the IMF is predicting close to 4.0% global GDP growth. The ECRI Weekly Leading Index is at an all-time high. Doug Short Recessions tend to start after the index […]
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2018 Outlook
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Review of 2017 Trends
In January I wrote about the trends I felt would impact 2017. With the half way point in the year I thought it would be a good exercise to review the trends identified. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration of growth. The […]
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Tadawul All Share Index and Crude Oil
Below is the 5 year chart of Saudi stock market with red circles where the index topped and green where it bottomed. Bloomberg The next chart is the 5 year West Texas Intermediate crude chart. I have placed the green and red circles at the same dates on the crude chart. Chart Courtesy of Stockcharts.com […]
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2017 Trends
After having a month to read many outlooks and reports about the upcoming year I have determined these are the trends I believe will continue for the remainder of 2017. 1. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration of growth. The USD will […]
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Sell the Inauguration
One theme in the recent quarterly newsletter is that I expect the US markets to trade sideways to down over the next few months. So far this idea has not panned out as the DOW recently topped 20,000 for the first time. However, historically the DOW tends to appreciate less than all other periods, except […]
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The Potential Biggest White Swan
The world is in period of uncertainty which seems to be the only thing people are certain of. Ever since BREXIT and the Trump election markets have performed differently than expectations. This unexpected reaction has lead me to begin thinking about what could the biggest white swan (a positive unexpected event that is not priced in) that […]
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UK Economy and Brexit
Back on June 29, 2016 I suggested that Brexit = Y2K and that UK stocks should do well (here and here). What I meant was that Brexit was a non-event. In fact it was a positive for the UK economy as it removed a level of bureaucracy. I was certain that the UK would still be […]
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TSX vs. S&P500
Last year was a good year for the Canadian stock markets. The idea portfolio since inception has outperformed the TSX and the TSX60 ETF was added at mid year (Q3 – July 2016 Report) during the dip. Raymond James Weekly Trends – January 6, 2017
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Are Stocks Cheap or Expensive?
Although I expect the market to take a breather and potentially correct during the first quarter, I do not believe that stocks are in bubble territory. The first chart shows the long term S&P500 trend with standard deviation bands above and below. By this measure stocks are not extended much above the long term log […]
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