After having a month to read many outlooks and reports about the upcoming year I have determined these are the trends I believe will continue for the remainder of 2017. 1. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration of growth. The USD will […]
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2017 Trends
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Sell the Inauguration
One theme in the recent quarterly newsletter is that I expect the US markets to trade sideways to down over the next few months. So far this idea has not panned out as the DOW recently topped 20,000 for the first time. However, historically the DOW tends to appreciate less than all other periods, except […]
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The Potential Biggest White Swan
The world is in period of uncertainty which seems to be the only thing people are certain of. Ever since BREXIT and the Trump election markets have performed differently than expectations. This unexpected reaction has lead me to begin thinking about what could the biggest white swan (a positive unexpected event that is not priced in) that […]
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UK Economy and Brexit
Back on June 29, 2016 I suggested that Brexit = Y2K and that UK stocks should do well (here and here). What I meant was that Brexit was a non-event. In fact it was a positive for the UK economy as it removed a level of bureaucracy. I was certain that the UK would still be […]
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TSX vs. S&P500
Last year was a good year for the Canadian stock markets. The idea portfolio since inception has outperformed the TSX and the TSX60 ETF was added at mid year (Q3 – July 2016 Report) during the dip. Raymond James Weekly Trends – January 6, 2017
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Are Stocks Cheap or Expensive?
Although I expect the market to take a breather and potentially correct during the first quarter, I do not believe that stocks are in bubble territory. The first chart shows the long term S&P500 trend with standard deviation bands above and below. By this measure stocks are not extended much above the long term log […]
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Energy Stocks Have More Upside
The short interest in energy stocks has fallen but it is still elevated. Bespoke
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Magazine Cover Curse
In both sports and stock markets some believe there is a magazine cover curse. There is some documented history of the curses, here and here and famous contrarian magazine covers that people remember, however, I suspect we all forget the ones that did not become contrarian signals suffer this causes a memory bias. Barron’s recently […]
Read moreI think the US markets are in the early phases of a long term bull market. However, as a caveat, I do not believe the direction will be straight up. In fact, there could be a near term large decline due to a recession in the second half of 2017 and increased volatility due to global […]
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