I came across this chart on Twitter. It claims that there is a 97% correlation but to get that tight fit they use two different scales on the primary and secondary y-axis. The scale on the black axis is a 500% range from bottom to top and the scale on red axis is 271% from […]
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Correlation and Analouge Charts
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Viewpoint Q2/2017
“History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes” May or may not have been said by Mark Twain JP Morgan Guide to the Markets I have been thinking about the above chart from the JP Morgan Guide to the Markets. It clearly shows that the sideways action of the past decade and a half has […]
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2017 Trends
After having a month to read many outlooks and reports about the upcoming year I have determined these are the trends I believe will continue for the remainder of 2017. 1. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration of growth. The USD will […]
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TSX vs. S&P500
Last year was a good year for the Canadian stock markets. The idea portfolio since inception has outperformed the TSX and the TSX60 ETF was added at mid year (Q3 – July 2016 Report) during the dip. Raymond James Weekly Trends – January 6, 2017
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Are Stocks Cheap or Expensive?
Although I expect the market to take a breather and potentially correct during the first quarter, I do not believe that stocks are in bubble territory. The first chart shows the long term S&P500 trend with standard deviation bands above and below. By this measure stocks are not extended much above the long term log […]
Read moreI think the US markets are in the early phases of a long term bull market. However, as a caveat, I do not believe the direction will be straight up. In fact, there could be a near term large decline due to a recession in the second half of 2017 and increased volatility due to global […]
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S&P500 Underperforms when Employment is Below 5%
A few posts back, I wondered whether wage increases will increase the participation rate? – one better hope so if they are a stock investor. Wells Capital Management
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S&P500 vs. Adjusted Monetary Base
St. Louis Fed The S&P500 and the Adjusted Monetary Base have been tightly correlated. Last week the AMB turned up. I would expect the S&P500 to do the same.
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