Here are some fun statistics. Nothing to do at the rig while they case the hole as its pouring rain here. On average a recession happens 22months AFTER a yield curve inversion. Stocks look more like 2015 than 01 or 08…US stocks probably have another leg up. Stocks on average gain 15% in the 18months […]
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Yield Curve Stats
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2017 Trends
After having a month to read many outlooks and reports about the upcoming year I have determined these are the trends I believe will continue for the remainder of 2017. 1. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration of growth. The USD will […]
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US Economic Update
US Economic Update The American Iron and Steel Institute reported that steel production has been strong: In the week ending on January 28, 2017, domestic raw steel production was 1,736,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 73.3 percent. Production was 1,607,000 net tons in the week ending January 28, 2016 while the capability […]
Read moreI believe light truck sales is one of the best economic indicators. Few people buy pick up trucks because they want one, most are bought for work and those that do usually work in blue collar jobs and if they have the funds to purchase a new truck the economy is doing well. St. Louis […]
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Treasury Budget and Recessions
I once again forgot where I saved this chart. The idea is a little counterintuitive, however, it becomes clearer when we realize how much government spending effects the economy. As the budget deficit declines, the US enters recessions. With Hillary, Donald and Bernie all putting forward economic plans that will increase government spending and debt, […]
Read moreKimble Charting Solutions Two conflicting messages come from these charts. The above chart has the DOW still above a long term channel. The below chart shows the IPO revenue and numbers of issued is declining like in previous recessionary periods. If the DOW breaks the support it would confirm the IPO message. FactSet
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Yield Curve
Richmond Fed
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Truck Sales
Richmond Fed Light truck sales remain in an uptrend. Light trucks sales tend to fall off 6 months or more before a US recession. Growth may be weaker than expected, but it is not recessionary.
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Yield Curve
Richmond Fed On the very, very short end of the Yield Curve, it is getting close to inverting, while the long end is flattening.
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