In January I wrote about the trends I felt would impact 2017. With the half way point in the year I thought it would be a good exercise to review the trends identified. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration of growth. The […]
Read more
No Comments
Review of 2017 Trends
No Comments
Two Warning Signs
I believe the hotel sector is a good leading indicator for the economy. The below chart shows that when the US early in recession, more than 50% of the hotel submarkets have a declining RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room Declines). HNN I believe as business slows, business and personal bookings for hotels decline and when hotel bookings decline […]
Read more
4 Comments
Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Shale and Game Theory
If I were the decision maker in Saudi Arabia I wouldn’t renew the agreement and send oil to $10 and it is based in game theory. Game theory suggests the others in the OPEC cartel will cheat and those outside will free ride. Saudi’s have born most of the cost and the reason why is to […]
Read more
No Comments
US Trade Deficits and Recession
One burden of having the reserve currency is that the nation who issues it has to be the consumer to the world. Often the reserve currency is referred to as a privilege, however, Michael Pettis in Foreign Affairs explained back in 2011 that it could be a burden as well. Note how shrinking trade deficits […]
Read more
No Comments
Light Truck Sales Strong
Richmond Fed Miles traveled are also up to a new record. However, gasoline consumption due to fuel efficiency improvements remain below 2007 levels. This confirms the American love affair with driving is far from over. EIA
Read more