It has been awhile since I posted anything. I do this as a hobby and recently I have had little I felt contributed to the discussion. For quite some time I had been bullish on oil prices (Mar 24, 2018 – oil at $65 – felt it was going higher; Nov 6, 2017 – upside target […]
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Market Cycle – Oil, Interest Rates and Recession
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Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Shale and Game Theory
If I were the decision maker in Saudi Arabia I wouldn’t renew the agreement and send oil to $10 and it is based in game theory. Game theory suggests the others in the OPEC cartel will cheat and those outside will free ride. Saudi’s have born most of the cost and the reason why is to […]
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Was this Capitulation?
Last night in the Asian trading session WTI crude oil dropped approximately $1.30 in a few minutes on no news. Oil bounced off the mid $43 support range shown on yesterdays chart. Was this forced liquidation? CME Group What happens next? It is too early to determine if this is a bounce or the […]
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Oil Price Forecast
The price of crude oil has now given up all of the gains made after the OPEC agreement of November 2016. How long will this weakness last and how far will crude decline? Intermarket Analysis In a research piece dated March 8, 2017, published on the CME website and titled “Is Crude Oil Taking Cue from Vegetable […]
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Spare Capacity vs. Above Ground Storage
A lot has been made about the large above ground oil inventories. The EIA publishes an update on this weekly. As you can see the above ground storage is well above the 5 year range. EIA However, spare capacity (or below ground storage) has been shrinking. JWN Further this Wall Street Journal article suggests that […]
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