This short paper was written in August 2016 The Emerging Free Market in Oil – August 2016 What happens to a market when prices are held above the long run inflation adjusted cost for extended period of time? You get surpluses. What happens when you get surpluses? Prices decline. What happens when you get price […]
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The Emerging Free Market in Oil
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My Reflation Thesis
This short paper was written back in July of 2016. My Theory – Reflation Thesis – July 2016 Generals always fight the last war and economists always fight the last depression. Commodities bottom in a repetitive manner. Rising commodity prices will foreshadow the reflation of the global economy. When commodities bottom the gold market bottoms first. […]
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The Financialization of Oil
Here is a link to a paper I wrote awhile back about the “Financialization of Oil”. It discusses how oil has become an anti-dollar trade and a financial product that has distorted supply and demand. The Financialization of Oil
Read moreThis post may be controversial. Without getting into the global warming debate and the morality discussion about the future of the world, as Helen Lovejoy would say, “wont somebody please think about the children“, but the below chart show the development of two African nations and their CO2 footprint. Steve Tinker – UTex Bureau of Economic […]
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Bottoming Pattern in Crude Oil?
CMEGroup Did a “Morning Star Doji Candle” – in Japanese Candlestick pattern terminology – happen yesterday?
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The Oil Story in Charts
Right now the market only cares about OPEC ignoring… : Confluence Investment Management and EIA Yet year to date Bespoke Think Big Blog and since Aug 2015 Bespoke Think Big Blog and 2011 Bespoke Think Big Blog but all the media discusses is they looking in the ?
Read moreRecently the EIA and other publications I love to read such as ClipperData have recently noticed that the short position held by producers of oil has reached a 9 year high. However, producers hedge and are not market timers. The green and red lines correspond to where short positions peaked with the green lines oil bottoming […]
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Fuel for the next Oil boom
When China began consuming a lot of gasoline as their automobile ownership took off, China was producing 4.5MM barrels of oil/day. India only produces about 1.5MMbbl/day. If Indian demand follows the path of other rapidly industrializing Asian nations, their imports will be larger than China. In a few years, assuming India continues to grow, all […]
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China Stockpiling Oil…Why?
When Brent futures drop below $45, China has been increasing oil imports. Why is China stockpiling so much? ThomsonReuters
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Oil Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern?
Elliot Wave Forecast
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