Recently the odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in March has spiked higher even though the FED had been telegraphing that every meeting is live. The two conditions set by the FED, the unemployment rate, has been below the 5% level they associate with NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) and the inflation […]
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A Few Warning Signs
I have been catching up on some sleep since returning from a 5 week stint drilling a few oil wells up in northern Alberta and have been a little lazy on blog posts, mostly because I have been lazy on reading through material for ideas. Later this week I plan on posting a US Economy […]
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US Economic Update
US Economic Update The American Iron and Steel Institute reported that steel production has been strong: In the week ending on January 28, 2017, domestic raw steel production was 1,736,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 73.3 percent. Production was 1,607,000 net tons in the week ending January 28, 2016 while the capability […]
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Real Interest Rates
Real interest rates are still negative. I think this is a chart to watch. With bond yields ticking up and chatter of Trump being the reflation President, which is yet to be confirmed long term – however – its has been a while since reflation has been discussed, will inflation (PPI, CPI and commodity prices […]
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Credit is Growing
St Louis Fed FRED
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Is the Fed Falling Behind the Curve?
Atlanta Fed
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Is the Fed Trying to Fall Behind the Curve?
In the June Absolute Return Partners Letter they ask whether the FED is behind the curve and display the following charts. I suggest we take the question further, is the FED trying to fall behind the curve? Absolute Return Partners Absolute Return Partners Absolute Return Partners To quote from my recent Oil Forecast Report, which […]
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Yield Curve
Richmond Fed
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Yield Curve
Richmond Fed On the very, very short end of the Yield Curve, it is getting close to inverting, while the long end is flattening.
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Oil Prices and High Yield
Confluence Asset Management Where will high yield spreads peak? It appears they are inversely related to oil prices.
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