2018 Outlook 2017 was an excellent year for the global economy. For the first time since the Great Recession there was synchronized global growth. This year the IMF is predicting close to 4.0% global GDP growth. The ECRI Weekly Leading Index is at an all-time high. Doug Short Recessions tend to start after the index […]
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2018 Outlook
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Review of 2017 Trends
2017 Trend Outlook In January I wrote about the trends I felt would impact 2017. With the half way point in the year I thought it would be a good exercise to review the trends identified. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration […]
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Viewpoint Q2/2017
“History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes” May or may not have been said by Mark Twain JP Morgan Guide to the Markets I have been thinking about the above chart from the JP Morgan Guide to the Markets. It clearly shows that the sideways action of the past decade and a half has […]
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Economic Outlook
Economic Discussion In the past it was common to suggest that the stock market was a leading economic indicator and would peak up to six months prior to the economy. I think that was due to a slow dissemination and collection of economic data versus the quick realisation of punters view of economic activity. I […]
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The Buying Power of the Dollar
Quite often I see posts such as this one, where they discuss what a dollar could buy a long time ago vs. what it can buy today. This argument is used to discuss how the purchasing power of the Dollar has been destroyed by the FED. In my opinion this example is wrong. The dollar […]
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Economic Discussion
Global Markets The Global PMI (purchasing managers index), a proxy for economic growth has rebounded to multi-year highs. This can be seen in expansion of both manufacturing and services. Markit The Emerging Market and Developed Market PMI expanding together. Is it possible we have entered a coordinated growth cycle after years of uncoordinated growth? CEO’s […]
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Random Thoughts on South America – Part 2
I am still in South America, Argentina to be exact. It is probably unfair to make generalizations about a nation’s business prospects with only a short visit but I plan to do so anyways. If the Jim Roger’s Border Theory is true, the theory suggests you can tell whether a country is worth investing in […]
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A Few Warning Signs
I have been catching up on some sleep since returning from a 5 week stint drilling a few oil wells up in northern Alberta and have been a little lazy on blog posts, mostly because I have been lazy on reading through material for ideas. Later this week I plan on posting a US Economy […]
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2017 Trends
After having a month to read many outlooks and reports about the upcoming year I have determined these are the trends I believe will continue for the remainder of 2017. 1. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration of growth. The USD will […]
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