Quite often I see posts such as this one, where they discuss what a dollar could buy a long time ago vs. what it can buy today. This argument is used to discuss how the purchasing power of the Dollar has been destroyed by the FED. In my opinion this example is wrong. The dollar […]
Read more
No Comments
The Buying Power of the Dollar
No Comments
Economic Discussion
Global Markets The Global PMI (purchasing managers index), a proxy for economic growth has rebounded to multi-year highs. This can be seen in expansion of both manufacturing and services. Markit The Emerging Market and Developed Market PMI expanding together. Is it possible we have entered a coordinated growth cycle after years of uncoordinated growth? CEO’s […]
Read more
No Comments
Random Thoughts on South America – Part 2
I am still in South America, Argentina to be exact. It is probably unfair to make generalizations about a nation’s business prospects with only a short visit but I plan to do so anyways. If the Jim Roger’s Border Theory is true, the theory suggests you can tell whether a country is worth investing in […]
Read more
No Comments
A Few Warning Signs
I have been catching up on some sleep since returning from a 5 week stint drilling a few oil wells up in northern Alberta and have been a little lazy on blog posts, mostly because I have been lazy on reading through material for ideas. Later this week I plan on posting a US Economy […]
Read more
No Comments
2017 Trends
After having a month to read many outlooks and reports about the upcoming year I have determined these are the trends I believe will continue for the remainder of 2017. 1. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration of growth. The USD will […]
Read more
No Comments
Inflation
With all the talk of inflation the trend is still downward. InflationData.com
Read more
No Comments
My Reflation Thesis
This short paper was written back in July of 2016. My Theory – Reflation Thesis – July 2016 Generals always fight the last war and economists always fight the last depression. Commodities bottom in a repetitive manner. Rising commodity prices will foreshadow the reflation of the global economy. When commodities bottom the gold market bottoms first. […]
Read more
No Comments
Review of 2016 Outlook
Review of 2016 Outlook 1) America is the likely to remain the destination for capital. This should push markets higher, well past fair valuations as this is capital fleeing the battlefield. 1) Correct. Foreigners continue to purchase US Assets. Wells Fargo 2) Europe is recovering, but will flare up. I believe by the second half […]
Read more
No Comments
Trump, Inflation, Bond Bear and Gold
With the rise in interest rates since the Trump election it has been a foregone conclusion (and I do not like foregone conclusions) that the bond bull market is over and that inflation will rise and gold will perform well. This idea is based on the $1 trillion dollar infrastructure spending plan and the tax […]
Read more
No Comments
US Monetary Aggregates
Money of Zero Maturity (the liquid money supply or M2 minus time deposits, plus all money markets) is up off the years lows, but continues to decline from the 2012 highs. St. Louis Fed M1 (cash and checking deposits) is approaching multi year highs. St. Louis Fed M2 (M1 plus savings deposits, money market securities, mutual funds […]
Read more