Google searches for Zerohedge, a provider of pessimism porn but rarely accurate/correct/useful information, have been rising during this bull market. I believe this represents the “wall of worry” that bull markets climb. People are still scared of the last crash and they are searching for negative view points to confirm their already held belief. If […]
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Zerohedge Indicator
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A Few Warning Signs
I have been catching up on some sleep since returning from a 5 week stint drilling a few oil wells up in northern Alberta and have been a little lazy on blog posts, mostly because I have been lazy on reading through material for ideas. Later this week I plan on posting a US Economy […]
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2017 Trends
After having a month to read many outlooks and reports about the upcoming year I have determined these are the trends I believe will continue for the remainder of 2017. 1. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration of growth. The USD will […]
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US Economic Update
US Economic Update The American Iron and Steel Institute reported that steel production has been strong: In the week ending on January 28, 2017, domestic raw steel production was 1,736,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 73.3 percent. Production was 1,607,000 net tons in the week ending January 28, 2016 while the capability […]
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Economic Outlook
Economic Outlook Consumers Retail sales in the US have been range bound since 2013. Richmond Fed Light Trucks, one of my favourite economic indicators as the sales of trucks tend to turn down prior to recessions, continue to expand. There has been weakness in auto sales though. This indicator should be continued to be monitored […]
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Vehicle Miles Driven
One benefit of the low gasoline prices is that after 7 years the total amount of miles driven by Americans has surpassed the peak made in 2008. Federal Highway Administration
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Trump, Inflation, Bond Bear and Gold
With the rise in interest rates since the Trump election it has been a foregone conclusion (and I do not like foregone conclusions) that the bond bull market is over and that inflation will rise and gold will perform well. This idea is based on the $1 trillion dollar infrastructure spending plan and the tax […]
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Magazine Cover Curse
In both sports and stock markets some believe there is a magazine cover curse. There is some documented history of the curses, here and here and famous contrarian magazine covers that people remember, however, I suspect we all forget the ones that did not become contrarian signals suffer this causes a memory bias. Barron’s recently […]
Read moreI believe light truck sales is one of the best economic indicators. Few people buy pick up trucks because they want one, most are bought for work and those that do usually work in blue collar jobs and if they have the funds to purchase a new truck the economy is doing well. St. Louis […]
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Did They Do it Again?
I waited a few months to post this. The Economist Magazine famously called the bottom (by accident) for oil back in 1999 when they predicted the price would fall to $5/barrel. Daily Oil Bulletin The January 23, 2016 cover of The Economist warns of cheap oil and its effects on different nations. I have […]
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