Gold is approaching a 5 year trend line and a break above could be the start of the next bull market. The Lyons Share One reason I am still cautious on gold breaking out is that the gold mining stocks are not outperforming the metal. The first chart is the ratio of the large miners […]
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The Buying Power of the Dollar
Quite often I see posts such as this one, where they discuss what a dollar could buy a long time ago vs. what it can buy today. This argument is used to discuss how the purchasing power of the Dollar has been destroyed by the FED. In my opinion this example is wrong. The dollar […]
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French Election
Le Pen did worse than expected. Watch French stocks soar (the ETF was up 14% in USD last quarter, 16% in CAD terms..good thing it was in the idea portfolio). I also expect gold to drop. I’m still bullish on french stocks though (a former investment banker is Prez.. it’s like electing Goldman. Very stock […]
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My Reflation Thesis
This short paper was written back in July of 2016. My Theory – Reflation Thesis – July 2016 Generals always fight the last war and economists always fight the last depression. Commodities bottom in a repetitive manner. Rising commodity prices will foreshadow the reflation of the global economy. When commodities bottom the gold market bottoms first. […]
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Review of 2016 Outlook
Review of 2016 Outlook 1) America is the likely to remain the destination for capital. This should push markets higher, well past fair valuations as this is capital fleeing the battlefield. 1) Correct. Foreigners continue to purchase US Assets. Wells Fargo 2) Europe is recovering, but will flare up. I believe by the second half […]
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Trump, Inflation, Bond Bear and Gold
With the rise in interest rates since the Trump election it has been a foregone conclusion (and I do not like foregone conclusions) that the bond bull market is over and that inflation will rise and gold will perform well. This idea is based on the $1 trillion dollar infrastructure spending plan and the tax […]
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Gold Stocks
The gold stocks chart matches the gold chart. Late last year I believed that gold had one more shake out and had to trade below $1000 to knock out the long term perma-bulls. In my own account I tried shorting gold stocks a couple of times and lost money as gold stocks have been on […]
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