If I were the decision maker in Saudi Arabia I wouldn’t renew the agreement and send oil to $10 and it is based in game theory. Game theory suggests the others in the OPEC cartel will cheat and those outside will free ride. Saudi’s have born most of the cost and the reason why is to […]
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Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Shale and Game Theory
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2017 Trends
After having a month to read many outlooks and reports about the upcoming year I have determined these are the trends I believe will continue for the remainder of 2017. 1. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration of growth. The USD will […]
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The Potential Biggest White Swan
The world is in period of uncertainty which seems to be the only thing people are certain of. Ever since BREXIT and the Trump election markets have performed differently than expectations. This unexpected reaction has lead me to begin thinking about what could the biggest white swan (a positive unexpected event that is not priced in) that […]
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New Map for Middle East
George Friedman, the founder of Stratfor, and now of Geopolitical Futures has an interesting map of “new” borders in the Middle East. Should something similar or a portion of this prevail how would energy supplies and alliances change? Geopolitical Futures
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The Financialization of Oil
Here is a link to a paper I wrote awhile back about the “Financialization of Oil”. It discusses how oil has become an anti-dollar trade and a financial product that has distorted supply and demand. The Financialization of Oil
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Makes No Sense
Speculation is that Saudi Arabia wants to monetize their large oil reserves before the world no longer uses oil. To do they need to pump as fast as they can and get whatever price available. Being the low cost producer with large reserves this seems to explain their current policy towards the oil markets. But […]
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Middle Eastern Stock Markets
Business Insider
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