Where are we in this market cycle? There seems to be two views. The Bear Case 1) A bubble about to pop And The Bull Case 2) This is the beginning of a generational bull market. In this post we will look at the bear argument and then I will give you my gut feeling. […]
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Where are we in the Market Cycle?
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TASI and Oil Update
In an earlier post I noted that the Saudi stock market has correctly forecast the direction of oil since 2014. Dana Lyons on his blog, As Oil Drops, Saudi Stocks Soar? in a post has noted that the Saudi market has broken out the downsloping trend line from 2014, and could offer a good investment […]
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Peak Oil Demand
It appears that investment banks and the business publications are all vying to be the one who can predict Peak Oil Demand as the story is being repeated in the news, you can find a few examples here, here, here, here, here, here, and here. The argument is that as the year over year growth rate is […]
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2017 Trends
After having a month to read many outlooks and reports about the upcoming year I have determined these are the trends I believe will continue for the remainder of 2017. 1. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration of growth. The USD will […]
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Economic Outlook
Economic Outlook Consumers Retail sales in the US have been range bound since 2013. Richmond Fed Light Trucks, one of my favourite economic indicators as the sales of trucks tend to turn down prior to recessions, continue to expand. There has been weakness in auto sales though. This indicator should be continued to be monitored […]
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My Reflation Thesis
This short paper was written back in July of 2016. My Theory – Reflation Thesis – July 2016 Generals always fight the last war and economists always fight the last depression. Commodities bottom in a repetitive manner. Rising commodity prices will foreshadow the reflation of the global economy. When commodities bottom the gold market bottoms first. […]
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Review of 2016 Outlook
Review of 2016 Outlook 1) America is the likely to remain the destination for capital. This should push markets higher, well past fair valuations as this is capital fleeing the battlefield. 1) Correct. Foreigners continue to purchase US Assets. Wells Fargo 2) Europe is recovering, but will flare up. I believe by the second half […]
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US Economic Growth
A theme I have been working with for awhile is the economy is not that bad. If you ask a major bear about what the perfect economy is and what would it take for them to be less bearish or even bullish they cannot answer. Some people are just always negative. Growth has been revised […]
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Crude Oil – Where is the Bottom?
I had expected the bottom to be in the $41-42 range as stated here, here, here and here and the next few days will determine if I am wrong or lucky. However, I want to post a chart from a newsletter I read that was posted back in January that has appeared to be quite accurate so far. His […]
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