After having a month to read many outlooks and reports about the upcoming year I have determined these are the trends I believe will continue for the remainder of 2017. 1. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration of growth. The USD will […]
Read more
No Comments
2017 Trends
No Comments
Economic Outlook
Economic Outlook Consumers Retail sales in the US have been range bound since 2013. Richmond Fed Light Trucks, one of my favourite economic indicators as the sales of trucks tend to turn down prior to recessions, continue to expand. There has been weakness in auto sales though. This indicator should be continued to be monitored […]
Read more
No Comments
My Reflation Thesis
This short paper was written back in July of 2016. My Theory – Reflation Thesis – July 2016 Generals always fight the last war and economists always fight the last depression. Commodities bottom in a repetitive manner. Rising commodity prices will foreshadow the reflation of the global economy. When commodities bottom the gold market bottoms first. […]
Read more
No Comments
Review of 2016 Outlook
Review of 2016 Outlook 1) America is the likely to remain the destination for capital. This should push markets higher, well past fair valuations as this is capital fleeing the battlefield. 1) Correct. Foreigners continue to purchase US Assets. Wells Fargo 2) Europe is recovering, but will flare up. I believe by the second half […]
Read more
No Comments
US Economic Growth
A theme I have been working with for awhile is the economy is not that bad. If you ask a major bear about what the perfect economy is and what would it take for them to be less bearish or even bullish they cannot answer. Some people are just always negative. Growth has been revised […]
Read more
No Comments
Crude Oil – Where is the Bottom?
I had expected the bottom to be in the $41-42 range as stated here, here, here and here and the next few days will determine if I am wrong or lucky. However, I want to post a chart from a newsletter I read that was posted back in January that has appeared to be quite accurate so far. His […]
Read more
No Comments
Crude Oil Tanker Order Book Expands
The crude tanker business has a bullish outlook on operations. Poten Partners
Read more
No Comments
What If the Fed Does Not Raise Rates?
I fully expect the Fed to raise rates in December, even though being Scrooge is no fun. But what are the implications for the USD if they do not? The below chart shows that the USD tends to sell off after the first rate rise, before rallying over the next twelve months. Evergreen Gavekal […]
Read more