I think the economies of the European Union are reaching a generational low. I think many would disagree with me. They would tell me the EU will disintegrate and the Euro will disappear. Those may happen but I still think it is less likely. I think the migrants will lower the EU average age, begin […]
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French Election
Le Pen did worse than expected. Watch French stocks soar (the ETF was up 14% in USD last quarter, 16% in CAD terms..good thing it was in the idea portfolio). I also expect gold to drop. I’m still bullish on french stocks though (a former investment banker is Prez.. it’s like electing Goldman. Very stock […]
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2017 Trends
After having a month to read many outlooks and reports about the upcoming year I have determined these are the trends I believe will continue for the remainder of 2017. 1. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration of growth. The USD will […]
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UK Economy and Brexit
Back on June 29, 2016 I suggested that Brexit = Y2K and that UK stocks should do well (here and here). What I meant was that Brexit was a non-event. In fact it was a positive for the UK economy as it removed a level of bureaucracy. I was certain that the UK would still be […]
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Review of 2016 Outlook
Review of 2016 Outlook 1) America is the likely to remain the destination for capital. This should push markets higher, well past fair valuations as this is capital fleeing the battlefield. 1) Correct. Foreigners continue to purchase US Assets. Wells Fargo 2) Europe is recovering, but will flare up. I believe by the second half […]
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Buy the Loonie: Update
Back on Sept. 17 I suggested a contrarian trade was to be long Canadian dollars vs. the US dollar. I suggested it was an idea that seemed so wrong that it might work. I went further and discussed the idea in the Q4/2016 Newsletter. Over that period of time the Loonie has lost about 6% versus the dollar […]
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Buy UK Stocks and Short German Stocks
Back on June 29, 2016 I wrote a post suggesting Brexit = Y2K suggesting it was a non-event and stated: “BUY THE POUND AFTER THE TROUGH. England may rid itself of Scotland and Northern Ireland (areas that receive more government revenue than they contribute) making England stronger. London, like Zurich, are both outside the EU. Both […]
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Brexit = Y2K?
Expect markets to do the opposite of what the experts tell you. Except maybe the Pound, which should decline, but it becomes a buy wherever it troughs. Think about the undercarriage of the Brexit vote. Britain has just removed a level of government. Each level of government has a cost. Canada and the […]
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Oil Prices, Euro and Inventories
Confluence Investment Management This scatter-plot created by Confluence Investment Management shows where oil prices have traded with different inventory levels and Euro prices. One the big head winds for oil prices has been the US dollar. There has a been a slight bid in the Euro and I think it could be the contrarian trade […]
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European Manufacturing
Blackrock European Manufacturing is outperforming China and the US. With all the negativity this seems counter intuitive.
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