I have been more bullish on the Canadian economy than most. I have expected a higher Loonie because of this. The Loonie has broken above the downtrend line from the May 2015 high and the 50 day moving average is approaching the 200 ma from below. A break above 77US cents would confirm the bullish […]
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Update on the Canadian Economy
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Oil Speculators
Dana Lyon has a very realistic warning about extreme levels of longs in oil speculators. Dana Lyon’s Tumblr I thought it would be interesting to see if there are any other measures that are less alarming. Below is Large Speculators Longs and Large Speculators divided by inventories. Yardeni Research However, whatever measure is correct, should […]
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Natural Gas Inventories
Natural gas inventories have fallen below the 5yr median level. John Kemp
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The Emerging Free Market in Oil
This short paper was written in August 2016 The Emerging Free Market in Oil – August 2016 What happens to a market when prices are held above the long run inflation adjusted cost for extended period of time? You get surpluses. What happens when you get surpluses? Prices decline. What happens when you get price […]
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The Financialization of Oil
Here is a link to a paper I wrote awhile back about the “Financialization of Oil”. It discusses how oil has become an anti-dollar trade and a financial product that has distorted supply and demand. The Financialization of Oil
Read moreThis post may be controversial. Without getting into the global warming debate and the morality discussion about the future of the world, as Helen Lovejoy would say, “wont somebody please think about the children“, but the below chart show the development of two African nations and their CO2 footprint. Steve Tinker – UTex Bureau of Economic […]
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Fuel for the next Oil boom
When China began consuming a lot of gasoline as their automobile ownership took off, China was producing 4.5MM barrels of oil/day. India only produces about 1.5MMbbl/day. If Indian demand follows the path of other rapidly industrializing Asian nations, their imports will be larger than China. In a few years, assuming India continues to grow, all […]
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Where Our Energy Comes From
Natural gas has over taken coal as the number one source of electrical generation. In the Q3/16 newsletter an allocation towards natural gas was added. This was more of a play on the potential for strong demand should a strong La Nina follow the strong El Nino. The last time this happened was the late […]
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