After having a month to read many outlooks and reports about the upcoming year I have determined these are the trends I believe will continue for the remainder of 2017. 1. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration of growth. The USD will […]
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2017 Trends
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US Economic Update
US Economic Update The American Iron and Steel Institute reported that steel production has been strong: In the week ending on January 28, 2017, domestic raw steel production was 1,736,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 73.3 percent. Production was 1,607,000 net tons in the week ending January 28, 2016 while the capability […]
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Inflation
With all the talk of inflation the trend is still downward. InflationData.com
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Loonie Trade – Mini Mac and Big Mac Index
Both measures have the Loonie undervalued against the US Dollar by about 10%. That gives a target of about 81-82 US cents. That is close to my target and the long term average price (see below). CFR Geo-Graphics Data from St. Louis Fed FRED
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Economic Outlook
Economic Outlook Consumers Retail sales in the US have been range bound since 2013. Richmond Fed Light Trucks, one of my favourite economic indicators as the sales of trucks tend to turn down prior to recessions, continue to expand. There has been weakness in auto sales though. This indicator should be continued to be monitored […]
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The Emerging Free Market in Oil
This short paper was written in August 2016 The Emerging Free Market in Oil – August 2016 What happens to a market when prices are held above the long run inflation adjusted cost for extended period of time? You get surpluses. What happens when you get surpluses? Prices decline. What happens when you get price […]
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My Reflation Thesis
This short paper was written back in July of 2016. My Theory – Reflation Thesis – July 2016 Generals always fight the last war and economists always fight the last depression. Commodities bottom in a repetitive manner. Rising commodity prices will foreshadow the reflation of the global economy. When commodities bottom the gold market bottoms first. […]
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The Financialization of Oil
Here is a link to a paper I wrote awhile back about the “Financialization of Oil”. It discusses how oil has become an anti-dollar trade and a financial product that has distorted supply and demand. The Financialization of Oil
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US Monetary Aggregates
Money of Zero Maturity (the liquid money supply or M2 minus time deposits, plus all money markets) is up off the years lows, but continues to decline from the 2012 highs. St. Louis Fed M1 (cash and checking deposits) is approaching multi year highs. St. Louis Fed M2 (M1 plus savings deposits, money market securities, mutual funds […]
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Labour Market Recession Indicator For Canada
The top chart, found in this CIBC report on labour market myths, plots the share of Canadians who have been with their employer 5 years or greater and the bottom chart is Canadian GDP per capita from the St. Louis Fed FRED site. When the percentage of workers at the same employer starts declining and […]
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