Back on June 5, 2017 I wrote a piece on how I thought the break out of gold above its 5 year down trend would likely be a bear trap. You can review the article here. My reasoning was as follows: Mining stocks were underperforming gold. Smaller miners were underperforming larger miners. Large speculators were […]
Read more
No Comments
Is Natural Gas About to Decline?
Money Managers are long more natural gas contracts than ever before in history. Arc Energy Research Institute Here is the same chart but in more detail and for a longer time horizon. CME COT Report And here is the NYMEX gas chart over the same period. St. Louis Fed Fred Unlike oil which seems to be […]
Read more
No Comments
Soy Oil and Crude Oil – Update
In my my oil price forecast dated May 4, 2017 and found here I discussed a CME Report from March 2017, on the relationship between Soy Oil and Crude Oil. I thought it would be worthwhile to review what has transpired since (please go to my previous blog post or the CME Report to get the […]
Read more
No Comments
Oil Speculators
Dana Lyon has a very realistic warning about extreme levels of longs in oil speculators. Dana Lyon’s Tumblr I thought it would be interesting to see if there are any other measures that are less alarming. Below is Large Speculators Longs and Large Speculators divided by inventories. Yardeni Research However, whatever measure is correct, should […]
Read more
No Comments
The Financialization of Oil
Here is a link to a paper I wrote awhile back about the “Financialization of Oil”. It discusses how oil has become an anti-dollar trade and a financial product that has distorted supply and demand. The Financialization of Oil
Read more
No Comments
Energy Stocks Have More Upside
The short interest in energy stocks has fallen but it is still elevated. Bespoke
Read moreRecently the EIA and other publications I love to read such as ClipperData have recently noticed that the short position held by producers of oil has reached a 9 year high. However, producers hedge and are not market timers. The green and red lines correspond to where short positions peaked with the green lines oil bottoming […]
Read more
No Comments
WTI Commitment of Traders Report
There seems to be an interesting development on the WTI COT report. You have producers increasing their longs while open interest is increasing. Not sure what it means but some producers could be buying their hedges back. CME Group
Read more