I have been more bullish on the Canadian economy than most. I have expected a higher Loonie because of this. The Loonie has broken above the downtrend line from the May 2015 high and the 50 day moving average is approaching the 200 ma from below. A break above 77US cents would confirm the bullish […]
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Update on the Canadian Economy
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2017 Trends
After having a month to read many outlooks and reports about the upcoming year I have determined these are the trends I believe will continue for the remainder of 2017. 1. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration of growth. The USD will […]
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Loonie Trade – Mini Mac and Big Mac Index
Both measures have the Loonie undervalued against the US Dollar by about 10%. That gives a target of about 81-82 US cents. That is close to my target and the long term average price (see below). CFR Geo-Graphics Data from St. Louis Fed FRED
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My Reflation Thesis
This short paper was written back in July of 2016. My Theory – Reflation Thesis – July 2016 Generals always fight the last war and economists always fight the last depression. Commodities bottom in a repetitive manner. Rising commodity prices will foreshadow the reflation of the global economy. When commodities bottom the gold market bottoms first. […]
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The Financialization of Oil
Here is a link to a paper I wrote awhile back about the “Financialization of Oil”. It discusses how oil has become an anti-dollar trade and a financial product that has distorted supply and demand. The Financialization of Oil
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Another Loonie Chart
If the yellow trend line breaks to the upside I will feel more confident in my contrarian Loonie idea. Courtesy of Stockcharts.com
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Buy the Loonie: Update
Back on Sept. 17 I suggested a contrarian trade was to be long Canadian dollars vs. the US dollar. I suggested it was an idea that seemed so wrong that it might work. I went further and discussed the idea in the Q4/2016 Newsletter. Over that period of time the Loonie has lost about 6% versus the dollar […]
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US Dollar Direction
One of the ideas in the last newsletter where I thought strong investment returns could be found was in the US Dollar. However, I also thought the Loonie (Canadian Dollar) would also be strong. My theory on that is capital is flowing to both the US and Canada, however this post is just about the […]
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US Trade Deficits and Recession
One burden of having the reserve currency is that the nation who issues it has to be the consumer to the world. Often the reserve currency is referred to as a privilege, however, Michael Pettis in Foreign Affairs explained back in 2011 that it could be a burden as well. Note how shrinking trade deficits […]
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