2018 Outlook 2017 was an excellent year for the global economy. For the first time since the Great Recession there was synchronized global growth. This year the IMF is predicting close to 4.0% global GDP growth. The ECRI Weekly Leading Index is at an all-time high. Doug Short Recessions tend to start after the index […]
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2018 Outlook
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Review of 2017 Trends
2017 Trend Outlook In January I wrote about the trends I felt would impact 2017. With the half way point in the year I thought it would be a good exercise to review the trends identified. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration […]
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Review of 2017 Trends
In January I wrote about the trends I felt would impact 2017. With the half way point in the year I thought it would be a good exercise to review the trends identified. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration of growth. The […]
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2017 Trends
After having a month to read many outlooks and reports about the upcoming year I have determined these are the trends I believe will continue for the remainder of 2017. 1. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration of growth. The USD will […]
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US Economic Update
US Economic Update The American Iron and Steel Institute reported that steel production has been strong: In the week ending on January 28, 2017, domestic raw steel production was 1,736,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 73.3 percent. Production was 1,607,000 net tons in the week ending January 28, 2016 while the capability […]
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My Reflation Thesis
This short paper was written back in July of 2016. My Theory – Reflation Thesis – July 2016 Generals always fight the last war and economists always fight the last depression. Commodities bottom in a repetitive manner. Rising commodity prices will foreshadow the reflation of the global economy. When commodities bottom the gold market bottoms first. […]
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The Financialization of Oil
Here is a link to a paper I wrote awhile back about the “Financialization of Oil”. It discusses how oil has become an anti-dollar trade and a financial product that has distorted supply and demand. The Financialization of Oil
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Chinese Commodity Demand
As Chinese GDP growth has slowed the narrative that Chinese commodity demand has declined has been repeated at nasaum. However, this appears to not be true. What has declined is the growth rate of Chinese commodity demand. The economics profession and investment world is addicted to growth rates and ignore gross figures. This is the […]
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Asset Class and Sector Review
The yellow line tracks the commodity group returns, the orange line emerging markets and the green line tracks developed markets. Three things stand out to me. Commodities have rebounded after 5 years of being the worst performing asset class. Emerging markets and commodities have a higher inverse correlation to commodities than developed markets. For the […]
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