I have had the contrarian view that Silver and Gold have one more plunge (this being the final false break out) before entering a new bull market. So far in 2017, Silver and Gold have been strong. However, could the zinc and lead rally be the catalyst to cause the silver (and by extension gold […]
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2017 Trends
After having a month to read many outlooks and reports about the upcoming year I have determined these are the trends I believe will continue for the remainder of 2017. 1. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration of growth. The USD will […]
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US Economic Update
US Economic Update The American Iron and Steel Institute reported that steel production has been strong: In the week ending on January 28, 2017, domestic raw steel production was 1,736,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 73.3 percent. Production was 1,607,000 net tons in the week ending January 28, 2016 while the capability […]
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My Reflation Thesis
This short paper was written back in July of 2016. My Theory – Reflation Thesis – July 2016 Generals always fight the last war and economists always fight the last depression. Commodities bottom in a repetitive manner. Rising commodity prices will foreshadow the reflation of the global economy. When commodities bottom the gold market bottoms first. […]
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The Financialization of Oil
Here is a link to a paper I wrote awhile back about the “Financialization of Oil”. It discusses how oil has become an anti-dollar trade and a financial product that has distorted supply and demand. The Financialization of Oil
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Chinese Commodity Demand
As Chinese GDP growth has slowed the narrative that Chinese commodity demand has declined has been repeated at nasaum. However, this appears to not be true. What has declined is the growth rate of Chinese commodity demand. The economics profession and investment world is addicted to growth rates and ignore gross figures. This is the […]
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Asset Class and Sector Review
The yellow line tracks the commodity group returns, the orange line emerging markets and the green line tracks developed markets. Three things stand out to me. Commodities have rebounded after 5 years of being the worst performing asset class. Emerging markets and commodities have a higher inverse correlation to commodities than developed markets. For the […]
Read moreThis post may be controversial. Without getting into the global warming debate and the morality discussion about the future of the world, as Helen Lovejoy would say, “wont somebody please think about the children“, but the below chart show the development of two African nations and their CO2 footprint. Steve Tinker – UTex Bureau of Economic […]
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Review of 2016 Outlook
Review of 2016 Outlook 1) America is the likely to remain the destination for capital. This should push markets higher, well past fair valuations as this is capital fleeing the battlefield. 1) Correct. Foreigners continue to purchase US Assets. Wells Fargo 2) Europe is recovering, but will flare up. I believe by the second half […]
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Real Interest Rates
Real interest rates are still negative. I think this is a chart to watch. With bond yields ticking up and chatter of Trump being the reflation President, which is yet to be confirmed long term – however – its has been a while since reflation has been discussed, will inflation (PPI, CPI and commodity prices […]
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