Back on September 17, 2016 I wrote this about the Canadian Dollar: Honestly I hate the idea so much I think the trade will probably work. At the time the the Loonie was trading at about $0.76 US. On January 25, 2017 I suggested Both measures have the Loonie undervalued against the US Dollar by […]
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Buy the Loonie Update – Reversion to the Mean
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Review of 2017 Trends
In January I wrote about the trends I felt would impact 2017. With the half way point in the year I thought it would be a good exercise to review the trends identified. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration of growth. The […]
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Energy Investment Idea
This idea is predicated on three assumptions I have There will be no Border Adjustment Tax on Canadian energy imports to the USA. The price of oil stays above $40US/barrel The US-Cdn exchange rate stays below $1.35Cdn Dollars for each US Dollar (above ~$0.74US Dollars per Canadian Dollar). If these assumptions remain true, Canadian energy stocks […]
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Update on the Canadian Economy
I have been more bullish on the Canadian economy than most. I have expected a higher Loonie because of this. The Loonie has broken above the downtrend line from the May 2015 high and the 50 day moving average is approaching the 200 ma from below. A break above 77US cents would confirm the bullish […]
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2017 Trends
After having a month to read many outlooks and reports about the upcoming year I have determined these are the trends I believe will continue for the remainder of 2017. 1. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration of growth. The USD will […]
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Loonie Trade – Mini Mac and Big Mac Index
Both measures have the Loonie undervalued against the US Dollar by about 10%. That gives a target of about 81-82 US cents. That is close to my target and the long term average price (see below). CFR Geo-Graphics Data from St. Louis Fed FRED
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TSX vs. S&P500
Last year was a good year for the Canadian stock markets. The idea portfolio since inception has outperformed the TSX and the TSX60 ETF was added at mid year (Q3 – July 2016 Report) during the dip. Raymond James Weekly Trends – January 6, 2017
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Another Loonie Chart
If the yellow trend line breaks to the upside I will feel more confident in my contrarian Loonie idea. Courtesy of Stockcharts.com
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Buy the Loonie: Update
Back on Sept. 17 I suggested a contrarian trade was to be long Canadian dollars vs. the US dollar. I suggested it was an idea that seemed so wrong that it might work. I went further and discussed the idea in the Q4/2016 Newsletter. Over that period of time the Loonie has lost about 6% versus the dollar […]
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