This idea is predicated on three assumptions I have There will be no Border Adjustment Tax on Canadian energy imports to the USA. The price of oil stays above $40US/barrel The US-Cdn exchange rate stays below $1.35Cdn Dollars for each US Dollar (above ~$0.74US Dollars per Canadian Dollar). If these assumptions remain true, Canadian energy stocks […]
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Energy Investment Idea
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Update on the Canadian Economy
I have been more bullish on the Canadian economy than most. I have expected a higher Loonie because of this. The Loonie has broken above the downtrend line from the May 2015 high and the 50 day moving average is approaching the 200 ma from below. A break above 77US cents would confirm the bullish […]
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2017 Trends
After having a month to read many outlooks and reports about the upcoming year I have determined these are the trends I believe will continue for the remainder of 2017. 1. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration of growth. The USD will […]
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Loonie Trade – Mini Mac and Big Mac Index
Both measures have the Loonie undervalued against the US Dollar by about 10%. That gives a target of about 81-82 US cents. That is close to my target and the long term average price (see below). CFR Geo-Graphics Data from St. Louis Fed FRED
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TSX vs. S&P500
Last year was a good year for the Canadian stock markets. The idea portfolio since inception has outperformed the TSX and the TSX60 ETF was added at mid year (Q3 – July 2016 Report) during the dip. Raymond James Weekly Trends – January 6, 2017
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Another Loonie Chart
If the yellow trend line breaks to the upside I will feel more confident in my contrarian Loonie idea. Courtesy of Stockcharts.com
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Buy the Loonie: Update
Back on Sept. 17 I suggested a contrarian trade was to be long Canadian dollars vs. the US dollar. I suggested it was an idea that seemed so wrong that it might work. I went further and discussed the idea in the Q4/2016 Newsletter. Over that period of time the Loonie has lost about 6% versus the dollar […]
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TMX Broken Trend Line
Chart courtesy of Stock Charts The above chart is the percentage of stocks on the Toronto Stock Exchange trading above the 50 day moving average. As you can see there has been lower highs and lower lows since the peak in June 2016. This describes a market with less and less strong stocks and […]
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Labour Market Recession Indicator For Canada
The top chart, found in this CIBC report on labour market myths, plots the share of Canadians who have been with their employer 5 years or greater and the bottom chart is Canadian GDP per capita from the St. Louis Fed FRED site. When the percentage of workers at the same employer starts declining and […]
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