Global Markets The Global PMI (purchasing managers index), a proxy for economic growth has rebounded to multi-year highs. This can be seen in expansion of both manufacturing and services. Markit The Emerging Market and Developed Market PMI expanding together. Is it possible we have entered a coordinated growth cycle after years of uncoordinated growth? CEO’s […]
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Economic Discussion
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Adjusted Monetary Base vs. Adjusted Reserves
The move and vacation is done. My files and computers are unpacked. One difficulty with not having time to read or follow the markets is that it becomes difficult to write. The quarterly newsletter will be out later this week and is a month late but life is back to normal now. While going through […]
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A Few Warning Signs
I have been catching up on some sleep since returning from a 5 week stint drilling a few oil wells up in northern Alberta and have been a little lazy on blog posts, mostly because I have been lazy on reading through material for ideas. Later this week I plan on posting a US Economy […]
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2017 Trends
After having a month to read many outlooks and reports about the upcoming year I have determined these are the trends I believe will continue for the remainder of 2017. 1. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration of growth. The USD will […]
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US Economic Update
US Economic Update The American Iron and Steel Institute reported that steel production has been strong: In the week ending on January 28, 2017, domestic raw steel production was 1,736,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 73.3 percent. Production was 1,607,000 net tons in the week ending January 28, 2016 while the capability […]
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Economic Outlook
Economic Outlook Consumers Retail sales in the US have been range bound since 2013. Richmond Fed Light Trucks, one of my favourite economic indicators as the sales of trucks tend to turn down prior to recessions, continue to expand. There has been weakness in auto sales though. This indicator should be continued to be monitored […]
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My Reflation Thesis
This short paper was written back in July of 2016. My Theory – Reflation Thesis – July 2016 Generals always fight the last war and economists always fight the last depression. Commodities bottom in a repetitive manner. Rising commodity prices will foreshadow the reflation of the global economy. When commodities bottom the gold market bottoms first. […]
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Labour Market Recession Indicator For Canada
The top chart, found in this CIBC report on labour market myths, plots the share of Canadians who have been with their employer 5 years or greater and the bottom chart is Canadian GDP per capita from the St. Louis Fed FRED site. When the percentage of workers at the same employer starts declining and […]
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Is the Deflation Scare Over?
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Deflation probabilities have reached 0%. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Both the flexible and sticky consumer price indices have been trending up since 2015. Will Trumpflation kill deflation?
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Global Economic Update
Fidelity Most countries are still in the expansion phase. Markit/JP Morgan Global manufacturing has hit a two year high. Trade could be derailed by the Donald, but the world seems to be improving.
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