- Oilfield Service stocks
OIH has not done much since the beginning of the year. If the pattern is a pennant or flag, the rule is that the consolidation is at the approximate half point of the move. That would target $42. I still think this has more upside but it required consolidation from the strong 2016 move.
2) Canadian Stocks
The percentage of stocks above their 200 day moving average is testing the break broken trendline.
The percentage of stocks above the 50 day moving average has turned down but is still elevated.
The TSX 60 is testing the uptrend line from early 2016. Not much has happened since the begining of the year.
3) Canadian Dollar
The Canadian Dollar has a strong correlation with the price of oil. The below chart is the USD/CAD (a rising ratio is a stronger USD and weaker CAD). Oil has been sideways early in the year, but the seasonal trend is for oil to outperform starting in mid February.
The Canadian Dollar has recently broken above a downsloping trendline on the weekly chart that goes back to May of 2016. It will be important to hold resistance.
It is possible that an inverse head and shoulders is being formed. If so this would target 79-80, or the long term average exchange rate.
Data from the St. Louis Fed FRED site
4) French Stocks
French stocks have been weak along with global stocks , the scandal Mr. Fillon finds himself in has not helped and neither has Trump’s stupid immigrant ban, but the index is still above resistance and for now it just represents a correction. Should Mr. Fillon be forced out of the race this idea may turn out to be a bad idea.
This has been the best performing idea so far.
The idea portfolio is essentially flat for the first month. I still think these ideas are in the beginning of uptrends. It would be nice if President Trump doesn’t cause more turmoil, but this is the era of investing we find ourselves in and must adjust.