I have been working on an a directional indicator for the oil price as well as a model to determine prices. The first of these two projects has gained some traction. The second has a long formula written out that is being run through excel while I try to determine some obscure and difficult numbers to estimate. Maybe #2 never happens.
The chart below is this indicator. It still requires work, but one quick visualization is that the indicator line tends to bottom first.
However, at this moment the indicator is still falling while WTI oil has tried to bounce. There could be more downside.
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