As a teaser to the quarterly newsletter that will be released in early July (Free as always – link here) I thought I would post the economic outlook found within.
As indicated earlier in this quarters newsletter I am now on recession countdown. I will keep this short and very chart heavy. It is very American centric but the old phrase about if America sneezes the world catches a cold is stil true.
Every decade since 1850 has had one recession.
In addition recessions have a history of happening in the first year of a presential term.
These two historical data points do not bode well for one of the longest expansions on record.
Traditionally oil and interest rates rise into recessions and both of these are happening.
The Global yield curve has inverted.
The US 10yr – 2yr yield curve is getting close to an inversion.
The leading indicators are still positive but making lower and lower highs, which historically has lead to a recession.
Light truck sales are approaching a level associated with recessions.
American electricity sales and kilowatt useage is negative year over year.
Hotel revenue per available room is peaking as it does prior to recessions.
Mergers and acquisitions are peaking.
Economic activity is still expanding, but the data always looks best at the top.
If I had to guess the date….by March 2019 it will be obvious.
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