Here are some fun statistics. Nothing to do at the rig while they case the hole as its pouring rain here. On average a recession happens 22months AFTER a yield curve inversion. Stocks look more like 2015 than 01 or 08…US stocks probably have another leg up. Stocks on average gain 15% in the 18months […]
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Yield Curve Stats
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Oil Price Indicator
I have been working on an a directional indicator for the oil price as well as a model to determine prices. The first of these two projects has gained some traction. The second has a long formula written out that is being run through excel while I try to determine some obscure and difficult numbers […]
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Market Cycle – Oil, Interest Rates and Recession
It has been awhile since I posted anything. I do this as a hobby and recently I have had little I felt contributed to the discussion. For quite some time I had been bullish on oil prices (Mar 24, 2018 – oil at $65 – felt it was going higher; Nov 6, 2017 – upside target […]
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Oil Rally?
Is this Bolton rally? Is that the sentiment trigger? How often do you see a weekly and daily chart both putting in potential (key word potential) cup and handles? Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com While testing the big gap from 2014 Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com With a Gold to oil Head and […]
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Oil Outlook for 2018
The blog has been quiet as I have been busy drilling oil wells, while working on a law degree. It has not only been that I have not had time to write, but not enough time to read which has led to a case of writers block. My return to writing will be on one […]
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TASI and Oil Update
In an earlier post I noted that the Saudi stock market has correctly forecast the direction of oil since 2014. Dana Lyons on his blog, As Oil Drops, Saudi Stocks Soar? in a post has noted that the Saudi market has broken out the downsloping trend line from 2014, and could offer a good investment […]
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Peak Oil Demand
It appears that investment banks and the business publications are all vying to be the one who can predict Peak Oil Demand as the story is being repeated in the news, you can find a few examples here, here, here, here, here, here, and here. The argument is that as the year over year growth rate is […]
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Tadawul All Share Index and Crude Oil
Below is the 5 year chart of Saudi stock market with red circles where the index topped and green where it bottomed. Bloomberg The next chart is the 5 year West Texas Intermediate crude chart. I have placed the green and red circles at the same dates on the crude chart. Chart Courtesy of Stockcharts.com […]
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West Texas – 6% Single Day Moves
Chart made from data at FRED If you like ideas like this please sign up to the free quarterly economics newsletter here.
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Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Shale and Game Theory
If I were the decision maker in Saudi Arabia I wouldn’t renew the agreement and send oil to $10 and it is based in game theory. Game theory suggests the others in the OPEC cartel will cheat and those outside will free ride. Saudi’s have born most of the cost and the reason why is to […]
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