With all the talk of inflation the trend is still downward. InflationData.com
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Inflation
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My Reflation Thesis
This short paper was written back in July of 2016. My Theory – Reflation Thesis – July 2016 Generals always fight the last war and economists always fight the last depression. Commodities bottom in a repetitive manner. Rising commodity prices will foreshadow the reflation of the global economy. When commodities bottom the gold market bottoms first. […]
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Review of 2016 Outlook
Review of 2016 Outlook 1) America is the likely to remain the destination for capital. This should push markets higher, well past fair valuations as this is capital fleeing the battlefield. 1) Correct. Foreigners continue to purchase US Assets. Wells Fargo 2) Europe is recovering, but will flare up. I believe by the second half […]
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Trump, Inflation, Bond Bear and Gold
With the rise in interest rates since the Trump election it has been a foregone conclusion (and I do not like foregone conclusions) that the bond bull market is over and that inflation will rise and gold will perform well. This idea is based on the $1 trillion dollar infrastructure spending plan and the tax […]
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Is the Fed Falling Behind the Curve?
Atlanta Fed
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Atlanta Fed Sticky CPI
The Atlanta Fed publishes what they refer to as the stick price consumer price index. It is described as: “The Atlanta Fed’s sticky price consumer price index (CPI)—a weighted basket of items that change price relatively slowly” Atlanta Fed This metric does not look deflationary and is near its post financial crisis high. My gut […]
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Inflation Metrics
All measures of inflation are firming from a low level in the US. If commodity prices stabilize and wage growth continues to show strength, then the FED will be much more comfortable raising rates. Richmond Fed Richmond Fed Richmond Fed Richmond Fed Richmond Fed
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Some Inflation Charts…Firming from a Low Level
Richmond Fed Richmond Fed Richmond Fed Richmond Fed There certainly is no need to fear inflation, however, these metrics are firming at a low level.
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I thought the Phillips Curve was Dead
Confluence Investment Managem I thought the Phillips Curve was Dead? I guess it is only broken.
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Three Sides of Inflation
Alhambra Partners Things changed in March 2012.
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