I have been negligent in posting much recently as I have been moving in with my girlfriend and traveling through South America, Chile currently and off to Uruguay tomorrow. I think it is quite possible that Chile’s best days are behind it. While visiting Santiago the students were protesting the private pension system claiming that […]
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Random Thoughts on South America
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A Few Warning Signs
I have been catching up on some sleep since returning from a 5 week stint drilling a few oil wells up in northern Alberta and have been a little lazy on blog posts, mostly because I have been lazy on reading through material for ideas. Later this week I plan on posting a US Economy […]
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Update on the Canadian Economy
I have been more bullish on the Canadian economy than most. I have expected a higher Loonie because of this. The Loonie has broken above the downtrend line from the May 2015 high and the 50 day moving average is approaching the 200 ma from below. A break above 77US cents would confirm the bullish […]
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2017 Trends
After having a month to read many outlooks and reports about the upcoming year I have determined these are the trends I believe will continue for the remainder of 2017. 1. Economic Growth USA – I believe the US expansion is late in the cycle and will see an acceleration of growth. The USD will […]
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US Economic Update
US Economic Update The American Iron and Steel Institute reported that steel production has been strong: In the week ending on January 28, 2017, domestic raw steel production was 1,736,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 73.3 percent. Production was 1,607,000 net tons in the week ending January 28, 2016 while the capability […]
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Economic Outlook
Economic Outlook Consumers Retail sales in the US have been range bound since 2013. Richmond Fed Light Trucks, one of my favourite economic indicators as the sales of trucks tend to turn down prior to recessions, continue to expand. There has been weakness in auto sales though. This indicator should be continued to be monitored […]
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The Emerging Free Market in Oil
This short paper was written in August 2016 The Emerging Free Market in Oil – August 2016 What happens to a market when prices are held above the long run inflation adjusted cost for extended period of time? You get surpluses. What happens when you get surpluses? Prices decline. What happens when you get price […]
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My Reflation Thesis
This short paper was written back in July of 2016. My Theory – Reflation Thesis – July 2016 Generals always fight the last war and economists always fight the last depression. Commodities bottom in a repetitive manner. Rising commodity prices will foreshadow the reflation of the global economy. When commodities bottom the gold market bottoms first. […]
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The Financialization of Oil
Here is a link to a paper I wrote awhile back about the “Financialization of Oil”. It discusses how oil has become an anti-dollar trade and a financial product that has distorted supply and demand. The Financialization of Oil
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Asset Class and Sector Review
The yellow line tracks the commodity group returns, the orange line emerging markets and the green line tracks developed markets. Three things stand out to me. Commodities have rebounded after 5 years of being the worst performing asset class. Emerging markets and commodities have a higher inverse correlation to commodities than developed markets. For the […]
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