Back on September 17, 2016 I wrote this about the Canadian Dollar: Honestly I hate the idea so much I think the trade will probably work. At the time the the Loonie was trading at about $0.76 US. On January 25, 2017 I suggested Both measures have the Loonie undervalued against the US Dollar by […]
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Buy the Loonie Update – Reversion to the Mean
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Loonie Trade – Mini Mac and Big Mac Index
Both measures have the Loonie undervalued against the US Dollar by about 10%. That gives a target of about 81-82 US cents. That is close to my target and the long term average price (see below). CFR Geo-Graphics Data from St. Louis Fed FRED
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My Reflation Thesis
This short paper was written back in July of 2016. My Theory – Reflation Thesis – July 2016 Generals always fight the last war and economists always fight the last depression. Commodities bottom in a repetitive manner. Rising commodity prices will foreshadow the reflation of the global economy. When commodities bottom the gold market bottoms first. […]
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Another Loonie Chart
If the yellow trend line breaks to the upside I will feel more confident in my contrarian Loonie idea. Courtesy of Stockcharts.com
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Buy the Loonie: Update
Back on Sept. 17 I suggested a contrarian trade was to be long Canadian dollars vs. the US dollar. I suggested it was an idea that seemed so wrong that it might work. I went further and discussed the idea in the Q4/2016 Newsletter. Over that period of time the Loonie has lost about 6% versus the dollar […]
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US Dollar Direction
One of the ideas in the last newsletter where I thought strong investment returns could be found was in the US Dollar. However, I also thought the Loonie (Canadian Dollar) would also be strong. My theory on that is capital is flowing to both the US and Canada, however this post is just about the […]
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US Dollar Bull or Bear?
Over the past 5 presidents Democrats have been US Dollar bullish while Republicans have been USD bearish. Danske Bank Weekly Is this chart about to break out or break down? Richmond Fed
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Buy the Loonie?
This should bode well Reuters For this… CFR Seems like a contrarian idea. Canada has a housing bubble in certain cities. Oil prices are hurting three of ten provinces. Debt is expanding and economic growth has been weak. Yet the Economist Big Mac Index and the CFR Mini-Mac Index has the CAD (or […]
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China’s Manipulated Currency
Some accuse China of manipulating their currency lower to increase exports. The below chart is from Horizon Exchange Traded Funds during a presentation (replay and pdf – links may no longer work) they made for their Global Currency Opportunities ETF. It sure does not look manipulated lower versus the Canadian Dollar.
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Buy UK Stocks and Short German Stocks
Back on June 29, 2016 I wrote a post suggesting Brexit = Y2K suggesting it was a non-event and stated: “BUY THE POUND AFTER THE TROUGH. England may rid itself of Scotland and Northern Ireland (areas that receive more government revenue than they contribute) making England stronger. London, like Zurich, are both outside the EU. Both […]
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