Is this Bolton rally? Is that the sentiment trigger? How often do you see a weekly and daily chart both putting in potential (key word potential) cup and handles? Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com While testing the big gap from 2014 Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com With a Gold to oil Head and […]
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Oil Rally?
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Is Natural Gas About to Decline?
Money Managers are long more natural gas contracts than ever before in history. Arc Energy Research Institute Here is the same chart but in more detail and for a longer time horizon. CME COT Report And here is the NYMEX gas chart over the same period. St. Louis Fed Fred Unlike oil which seems to be […]
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Soy Oil and Crude Oil – Update
In my my oil price forecast dated May 4, 2017 and found here I discussed a CME Report from March 2017, on the relationship between Soy Oil and Crude Oil. I thought it would be worthwhile to review what has transpired since (please go to my previous blog post or the CME Report to get the […]
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My Reflation Thesis
This short paper was written back in July of 2016. My Theory – Reflation Thesis – July 2016 Generals always fight the last war and economists always fight the last depression. Commodities bottom in a repetitive manner. Rising commodity prices will foreshadow the reflation of the global economy. When commodities bottom the gold market bottoms first. […]
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Chinese Commodity Demand
As Chinese GDP growth has slowed the narrative that Chinese commodity demand has declined has been repeated at nasaum. However, this appears to not be true. What has declined is the growth rate of Chinese commodity demand. The economics profession and investment world is addicted to growth rates and ignore gross figures. This is the […]
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Asset Class and Sector Review
The yellow line tracks the commodity group returns, the orange line emerging markets and the green line tracks developed markets. Three things stand out to me. Commodities have rebounded after 5 years of being the worst performing asset class. Emerging markets and commodities have a higher inverse correlation to commodities than developed markets. For the […]
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Review of 2016 Outlook
Review of 2016 Outlook 1) America is the likely to remain the destination for capital. This should push markets higher, well past fair valuations as this is capital fleeing the battlefield. 1) Correct. Foreigners continue to purchase US Assets. Wells Fargo 2) Europe is recovering, but will flare up. I believe by the second half […]
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Real Interest Rates
Real interest rates are still negative. I think this is a chart to watch. With bond yields ticking up and chatter of Trump being the reflation President, which is yet to be confirmed long term – however – its has been a while since reflation has been discussed, will inflation (PPI, CPI and commodity prices […]
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Gold Stocks
The gold stocks chart matches the gold chart. Late last year I believed that gold had one more shake out and had to trade below $1000 to knock out the long term perma-bulls. In my own account I tried shorting gold stocks a couple of times and lost money as gold stocks have been on […]
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